Smartguy no more?

I’m a smart guy.  9’s on my Iowas as a kid, invited to John’s Hopkin’s as a teen, Ivy league SAT’s as a highschool dropout,  Aptitude scores in the top percentiles, Member of mensa, etc.

Whupdedoo.

I play it off like I don’t much give a shit, but it’s been a source of pride.  No matter how much of a fuckup I was, I could always look at the test scores as proof positive that I might, one day, be worth a shit.(Other folks have used the scores as evidence of my wasted potential.)

So imagine my dismay, when in the latest round of testing for my poor beat up brain, I scored  (gulp) “average, to high-average IQ.”  WTF is that?  I’m a “superior to very-superior” kinda guy… At least I always have been.

So  I’m left with three possibilities:

1)      The test was wrong,  or they dumped the data because it was more than 2 standard deviations high.

2)      Although my memory is intact, my analytical abilities have decreased.

3)      I was never as smart as I suspected.

A bit of the old irony…  I am more successful than I have ever been.  Great family, most wonderful wife in the world, making good money, etc.

But, as is so common to getting older, I have a little less potential.

I am reminded that we all get to a point where life stops giving you things, and starts taking them away.

And I hear that lonesome clock ticking.

Chiari and me

Several years ago, I began to get headaches.  I went to see a Dr. Greenfield in Annapolis who ran a battery of tests, including an MRI.  The test detected a minor Chiari Malformation –about 3-4mm.  A referral to a Neurologist did some further tests, but found little nerve damage.  He figured my headaches were migraines, and I learned that they were made worse by chocolate and soy.

So that went on for a few more years.  However in the spring of 2010 I started to have more symptoms.  Tingling in my extremities got worse, headaches got more frequent, and my vision seemed to deteriorate.  But far and away, the worst syptom was an increased “fogginess.”  I seemed more often confused, and my memory started to give me problems.

I saw two more doctors, a general practitioner and a neurologist, before being referred to my current neurologist.

He ordered another round of MRI’s, and did a number of nerve tests.  It turned out I had carpel tunnel, and he blamed that for the tingling in my extremities.  Although the MRI showed that my Chiari herniation had elongated to 7-8mm, he didn’t belive that it was the root of my cognitive problems.  Instead he believed that I might suffer from sleep Apnea.

A sleep study proved him correct, and I began to use a CPAP machine to keep my airways open while I slept.  Oxygen deprivation during sleep causes brain damage (and is associated with a number of health problems), and it was hoped that with time my syptoms would reverse.

So far, as of November 2011, I have seen some improvement.  A course of physical therapy and a number of excercises have made the tingling and numbness a rare thing. The headaches have nearly disappeared – I can even tolerate some soy and chocolate!  But the cognitive problems have been more stubborn.

They seem cyclical, and I believe they have improved somewhat, but my memory issues seem beyond what I could expect at my age.

I have most recently undertaken a more extensive series of cognitive tests in order to benchmark and identify the issue.

Needless to say, I have fears over things like early onset Alzheimers (although without a family history, it is very very rare.)

I find out next Tuesday. 

Additionally, I am wondering if the CPAP is not as effective as it could be due to my mouth opening at night  (I’ve read this can be a problem) I’ve ordered a chin strap in hopes that this helps.  I’ve been using a bathrobe tie to keep my jaw shut the last few nights, and it seems to help keep my AHI numbers down. 

Anyhow, I read about the difficulties many with Chari have, and my heart goes out to them – particularly the kids.  Even on it’s worst days, my own chiari is far from debilitating.  For some folks, it means not being able to walk, work, or really function.

Strange to think how your brain drives your whole life,  that you really aren’t more than the firing of neurons and such. Lack of oxygen and/or restricted CSF fluid might undue some of my thinking, but I'm going to put some of my modest resources toward charities that work on Chiari.  If our brains are nodes in part of a larger collective mind, I'm going to put mine to work as part of the immune system.  Addled or not, I can become part of my own cure, even if it happens long after I'm gone.

How does the fable of the ant and the grasshopper end in a Democracy, when the grasshoppers have a majority?

Often disagree with F.Z.  but found the data in his OCT. 6 essay interesting:

"Perhaps the most crucial measure of our ability to compete in a global economy is our educational attainment, especially in science, math and engineering. A generation ago, America had the highest percentage of college graduates in the world. Today we’re ninth and falling. The WEF report ranks the U.S. a stunning 51st in science and math education. If a willingness to study science, math and engineering is an indication of being willing to work at hard stuff, there is no question that we are going soft. In 2004 only 6% of U.S. degrees were awarded in engineering, half the average for rich countries. In Japan it’s 20%, and in Germany it’s 16%. In 2008–09 there were more psychology majors than engineering majors in America and more fitness-studies majors than physical-sciences majors."

(from http://www.fareedzakaria.com/home/Articles/Entries/2011/10/6_The_Hard_Truth_About_Going_%E2%80%98Soft%E2%80%99.html)

Wow...  So policy fix would be to subsidize math/sci/engineering degrees, and tax Film degrees... It's reasonable, since somewhere down the road the Film majors are going to have to rely on the system for support.

So, to the woman being interviewed at the OWS who was upset about her $60,000 debt, and inability to find a job...  Maybe you shouldn't have majored in sculpture.

Email about Taylor

Beau introduced Taylor as his cousin.  In fact there was no relation, but Beau was apparently embarrassed to be hanging out with the kid across the street who was four or five years younger.  I think I was 15 or 16 when Taylor first showed up over at Beau’s, that would’ve made Taylor 11.

Taylor resurfaced a few years later, hanging out with some of the younger guys like Redlack and Bergman.  Taylor got into trouble like the rest of us.  He was more or less a fuck-up, just like the rest of us.

I think he went out with Laurie – I’m pretty sure – some months after she broke up with Redlack. I remember Dave and Barb, Taylor and Laurie, me and Dana all sort of lived at Taylor’s house the summer before I went to college when his folks left for Europe for a month.  We drank, fucked around, played a lot of poker and played badminton in the afternoons.  It was very civilized. 

Taylor and Dave got my Corvair impounded at one point.  Taylor ruptured his spleen at one point and nearly died.

He would eat his boogers in front of us, it was a hoot.

The last time I saw him, we we’re playing poker in my folk’s basement.  We had a game 4-5 times a week, lots of nightshift tow truck drivers would play while they were on call.  Taylor was driving a tow truck then.  Through freak cards Taylor, Dave and Dennis got into a high-low (think it was Big Chicago actually) game and the pot swelled to around $3,000 – Huge money for us back then.

Taylor lost out on the high hand to Dave and had to write Dennis a large IOU to cover it.   As luck would have it, Taylor lost his job the next day, and sort of disappeared.  I went off to Boston, and haven’t seen Taylor since.  Dennis still carries the IOU around in his pocket in hopes of collecting one day.

Anyhow, Den got a call from Beau last night/  It seems Taylor had become a successful food importer.  He’d taken over his Uncle’s business after a stint as a manager for KPMG, and college in Jacksonville.  Taylor was out in California working a deal, and had rented a convertible corvette.  He was driving some back road, but wasn’t wearing a seat belt and was thrown from the car.  He died instantly.  The other person in the car had several broken bones, but made it out many hours later and called for help.

Taylor apparently didn’t have kids, wasn’t married.  The article said he had his license suspended several times, and that he was quite successful in the restaurant business.  It wasn’t a very long article.

Strange Bedfellows

I’m wondering if President Clinton’s increased appearance on the national stage – and increased criticism of the Obama’s opponents– is a harbinger of Hillary being named to the 2012 ticket.

Two currencies to fix Greece?

When I was a kid, Pop and I were bringing a boat north from Puerto Rico when we lost an engine and wound up marooned in the Dominican Republic for a few weeks while we waited on parts.

This was 30 years ago, and the DR wasn’t quite so tourist friendly, people butchered goats on the sidewalk, guys walked the docks with assault rifles, and we learned a bit about the economics of bribery.

Bribes, fees for service really, were best paid in U.S. dollars.  Dominican dollars were acceptable, but you had to offer more of them – despite a 1:1 official peg.  Slips and fees at the government marina had to be paid in Dominican dollars – no worries, they’d change your greenbacks right there at 1:1.  (Guys downtown would change you at 1.2:1,  I’d imagine guys in the know did even better.)

Running with two currencies seemed a great way to get good dollars into the country, and I suspect into the right pockets.

Lots of countries run with multiple acceptable currencies, which made me wonder… why can’t Greece do the same?

Print Drachma for domestic use, use Euro for international payments, “fix’ an exchange rate, and let the robust underground Greek economy sort out it’s own exchange rates.  Internally, you’d get Drachma inflation, likely Euro deflation. The peg allows you to keep marks high, and likely exports a smidge of inflation. The strong euro within Greece boosts tourism and foreign investment.

Thoughts?

Gold!

I’ve been a true believer in the gold story for a number of years, and for the most part the results have been fantastic.

More recently, I’ve been disappointed with the performance of the miners, and as of this summer, as gold approached the top of its trading channel, I began to accumulate GLD puts.   That part has been less fantastic.

I do not believe in gold as money, at least not yet.   I’ve never purchased anything with gold, don’t know of many people that have.  While it’s true that it has a historic use as a medium of exchange, so do goats.

I have a hard time believing that my house and land is now worth 30lbs of the stuff, rather than 60lbs – especially considering the probable reserves of AU down in the creeks and in the quartz veins.

I do not believe that a year’s labor from a doctor or engineer has been cut in half, or that the value of a Monet or productive farmland has fallen so drastically relative to the metal. 

I am skeptical toward arguments for continued appreciation when I look at Gold’s appreciation relative to other assets – fiat or no, real estate isn’t appreciating, wages aren’t appreciating, washing machines aren’t appreciating, copper, oil, platinum, etc etc…  You might not want to trade that pound of gold for a used Honda, but for a new BMW you might be tempted.  And if not a BMW, then definitely a Maybach.

The certainty of gold as a refuge during deflation seems questionable as well.  I believe that the appreciation during the 30’s was more a product of nations abandoning the gold standard and massive bank failures, but I’m certainly no expert.  I think earlier historic examples speak more to gold’s portability and security than any lasting intrinsic deflationary resilience.

Maybe slow appreciation is warranted based on scarcity – say at the rate of inflation.  Which would mean over the long term you will only lose real purchasing power at whatever the capital gains (or collectible) tax rate is.  And although it’s not happening anytime soon, improved discovery and recovery methods will tend to increase supply and pressure prices.  With asteroids containing trillions of current dollars worth of the stuff, I suspect in real dollars, the very long term direction is downward. (Don’t get me started on diamonds!)

Maybe we are not yet in a bubble, or perhaps this is the rarest of all animals -- the rational bubble, but the chart and the anecdotal stuff is becoming awfully similar to most previous examples which have ended in tears.  

From my limited understanding of such things, it seems that once a bubble breaks it retreats beyond fair value, and stays there for quite a while.

At some point, even if this run is meant to continue, we will correct to the 50day (currently at $1668) or 200day ($1492) but I’m beginning to suspect that this time the game is over for a time.  Recent action looks more like the end part of a run, rather than the middle.

Course, whadda I know:  I’ve been short this month, and I have been wrong, and I am adequately bloody to show for it.  (To add insult to injury, I was on the ocean for the spike down, and missed any opportunity to be made whole.)

Hope all are well,

J.

(P.S.  Even if you’re a fan of $Gold, what about GLD?  Although I’m not as conspiratorial as some of the links and stories I’ve seen, there do seem to be some additional risks…  Anyone doing a GLD/physical pairs trade?)